Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned the United States and its allies that Moscow will consider responding with nuclear weapons if they allow Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia with Western missiles. Some in the West question if Putin is bluffing, which is crucial as it could impact the course of the war. Putin has expanded the scenarios in which Russia would use nuclear weapons, specifically in response to a major cross-border attack involving aircraft, missiles, or drones. This threat is directly related to the possibility of Western support for Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles against Russia. Some analysts believe this is a form of “nuclear blackmail” designed to intimidate Western countries and discourage them from escalating the conflict further.
While experts caution against dismissing Putin’s warnings, there is skepticism about Russia’s actual willingness to use nuclear weapons. The recent changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine lower the threshold for nuclear use and extend coverage to neighboring Belarus, but the criteria for a response remain high. Some believe that Putin’s message is aimed at preventing further escalation of the war by warning the West of serious consequences if they support attacks on Russia. Overall, there is a sense of frustration in Moscow that Western countries are not taking Russia’s nuclear threats seriously, with concerns about the potential risks of miscalculation or misunderstanding leading to a major conflict.
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