Juan Soto recently signed the longest contract in Major League history, spanning 15 years with the New York Mets. In analyzing how Soto might age over the next 15 years, comparisons were made to players with similar early career production. Through his age-25 season, Soto ranks 10th in wins above replacement. Looking at a sample of players ahead and behind him, it was found that they averaged 32 WAR over the next five seasons (through age 30) and 58 WAR over the next 15.
Based on this analysis, it is estimated that Soto, with his current 36 WAR, could be worth about 62 WAR by the end of his contract in 2039. The Mets would be spending about $12.3 million per win above replacement, which is considered a reasonable amount in the current free agent market. Players like Frank Robinson were successful after age 25, and scouts are optimistic about Soto’s offensive abilities aging well.
However, there are concerns about Soto’s defense, with some scouts predicting a position change and questioning his ability to remain in the outfield long-term. The consensus is that Soto’s offensive skills will always be strong, but his future in the field is less certain. Overall, scouts are hopeful that Soto will continue to excel at the plate, comparing him to legendary hitters like Barry Bonds. The Mets will be looking to Soto to provide sustained production over the life of his historic contract.
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