Former President Donald Trump’s claims of winning New York may be empty bluster, but down-ballot races in the state show signs of strength for Republicans. Vice President Kamala Harris leads Trump in New York City but by less than President Joe Biden did in 2020. House Republican battleground polling in competitive districts in the state also suggests Trump is performing better than in 2020. Six districts polled show Trump winning by an average of 1 percentage point, a significant change from Biden’s margin in 2020.
Republicans like Rep. Elise Stefanik point out that Harris is underperforming in swing districts compared to Biden in 2020, suggesting a shift in New York politics towards Republicans. Democratic control of the state has faced decay due to far-left policies, according to Stefanik. While New York is traditionally Democratic at the presidential level, Trump improved his vote share in 2020 and has held rallies in the state ahead of the election.
Despite concerns about the impact of statewide politics on key House races in New York, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries remains confident that candidates will run their own races. However, issues such as progressive policies like bail reform and congestion pricing could present challenges for Democrats in the suburbs. Governor Kathy Hochul’s approval ratings trailing behind Trump’s numbers could also impact races in the state.
While there is momentum and energization among Republicans in New York, Trump’s unpredictability and controversial comments could potentially have a negative impact on House Republicans. Voter turnout will ultimately drive the results of the election, with top of the ticket candidates playing a significant role.
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