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What are the chances of the ruling LDP party losing in the upcoming general election in Japan and what factors are at play?


Japan’s beleaguered ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is facing an election on October 27 following months of financial scandals, a cost-of-living crisis, and unpopular leaders. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s resignation due to record low approval ratings has led to the selection of Shigeru Ishiba as his successor in hopes of reviving the party’s fortunes. Polls suggest the LDP may retain its majority in the 465-seat lower house election despite challenges from a divided opposition. However, a new poll by the Nikkei suggests they may fail to secure a majority, potentially leading to political turmoil not seen since 2009.

The LDP’s dominance has been interrupted before, notably in 2009 when the Democratic Party of Japan took office under Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. Analysts pointed to fallout from the 2008 global financial crisis, income inequality, and scandals as contributing factors. Ishiba, seen as a moderate alternative to his conservative rivals, faces challenges in introducing legislation due to potential weaknesses in the coalition’s control of key parliamentary committees.

Critics have accused Ishiba of backpedalling on promises to address funding scandals and social issues like same-sex marriage and female succession laws. Despite a record number of women candidates and calls for reform within the LDP, the lower house is not expected to see significant change. Ishiba’s leadership, while promising modernization and unity, will be closely watched as Japan prepares for a pivotal election that could determine the party’s future.

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Photo credit www.theguardian.com

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