As the United States presidential election approaches in less than four weeks, analysts are warning that Israel’s military campaigns across the Middle East could impact the chances of Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris. The Biden administration’s unwavering support for Israel has splintered the Democratic base, particularly among Arab Americans, who have turned against the party due to its stance on the wars in Gaza and Lebanon. This erosion of support could lead to Arab voters in key states like Michigan staying home on election day, potentially hurting Harris’s chances of beating former President Donald Trump.
A recent poll found that Harris and Trump are virtually tied among Arab voters, reflecting a decline in support for the Democrats since the beginning of the war in Gaza. Despite hopes for a fresh approach from Harris, she has aligned herself with Biden’s policies on Israel, even as the conflict escalates and brings the region to the brink of a wider war. The treatment of Palestinian Americans, such as excluding a speaker at the Democratic National Convention, has also drawn criticism.
The Arab American population could play a crucial role in swing states like Michigan, where Harris holds a narrow lead. However, divisions within the community over how to leverage their vote could impact the outcome. While some see a Harris loss in Michigan as a warning to future candidates, others fear the consequences of a second Trump presidency. As the conflict in the Middle East intensifies, concerns about further escalation and US involvement add an element of uncertainty to the election.
The Democratic Party faces challenges in retaining support from key demographics like young people and communities of color, especially regarding foreign policy issues like the Israel-Palestine conflict. Failure to acknowledge and address these shifts could cost the party votes in the upcoming election.
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