Israel and Iran have long avoided direct confrontation, with Israel secretly sabotaging Tehran’s interests and assassinating its officials without claiming responsibility, while Iran encouraged its allies to attack Israel, although rarely doing so itself. Now, the two countries appear ready to risk a direct and costly conflict, as reported by The New York Times.
Following Israel’s invasion of Lebanon to confront Iran’s strongest ally, Hezbollah, and a second massive rocket attack by Iran on Israel in less than six months, Israel seems prepared to strike Iran directly, in a much stronger and more public manner than ever before. Iran has warned of massive retaliation if it does so.
Many Israelis now see little left to lose, as Iran’s efforts to target urban areas around Tel Aviv have crossed a threshold that Tehran had not breached before. This has led to calls in Israel for a stronger response to Iran’s attacks.
While critics often see Tel Aviv as the main instigator of troubles in the Middle East, many Israelis view themselves as victims of constant attacks by Iran-backed actors and feel they have not done enough to defend themselves. Calls for holding Iran accountable for its allies’ attacks are growing in Israel.
Israel has not yet decided on the exact response to Iran’s actions, with the extent of its reaction depending on the level of support from the United States. The nature of Israel’s response may become clearer after the Jewish New Year, according to U.S. officials.
Israeli officials believe their retaliatory response to Iran’s actions in April was too limited and restrained, and this time, they may target oil production and military bases. Targeting oil refineries could impact Iran’s fragile economy and global oil markets.
Despite speculation, Israel is not currently planning to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, as it would be challenging without U.S. support. President Biden has stated that he would not support an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.
Overall, Israel’s response is expected to be strong and impactful, aiming to send a message to Iran and affect its operations. Guzansky emphasized that the response should go beyond just hitting radar stations.
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